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Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
 Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
According to BHP, the gCNewc 6000 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle index (hereafter 6000kcal) averaged around $61/t over the half, down from around $68/t in the first half of financial 2020. Prices ranged from a high of around $74/t to a low of around $50/t. That is below the 2015/16 trough in real terms. Based on the Wood Mackenzie operating cost curve, more than half of seaborne supply (comprising all grades of energy coal) was likely experiencing negative margins with 6000kcal prices in the low $50s.
The 5500kcal index averaged around $49/t over the same period, with a high of around $58/t and a low of around $38/t, which was where it closed out the half year.
BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook further noted that, the spread between the spot indexes for gCNewc 6000kcal and 5500kcal reverted to historical average of close to 20 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020, down from around 30 per cent in the 2019 calendar year.
“While not directly relevant to our business, there was a compression of spreads between the lower grades of energy coal (the 5000, 4200 and 3400 gross–as–received29 kcal brackets) as prices traded deep into the cost curve. Supply has been “sticky” in most export jurisdictions, with the exception of Indonesia, where output has been materially lower. Indonesian supply is prominent in these lower quality brackets” says BHP. Developed Asian markets, who are the largest buyers of >5500kcal product, have been weak under the shadow of COVID–19. Japanese imports contracted by –3 per cent YoY in the first half of the 2020 calendar year, while power demand was down -4 per cent YoY, South Korean imports contracted by –11% per cent.
Chinese demand for seaborne energy coal according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20, rebounded as lockdowns were lifted, with consumption of coal at coastal power plants back in the normal seasonal range by April 2020. Hydro generation has been inconsistent, along with the weather, with dry conditions early in the year then giving way to floods. The market consensus has been that the 271–281 Mt import inflow registered in calendar years 2017 and 2018 would serve as an informal objective for total coal imports (including metallurgical and lignite) in calendar 2020, rather than assuming that the jump to around 300Mt in 2019 was the new norm. Enforcement of quotas by month and by port, including clamping down on the practice of trading firms clearing customs at one port but discharging at another, have been somewhat effective. Even so, with so much product being forced to clear to China under the Great Lockdown, some provinces and individual ports had already exhausted full year quotas by May.
India saw a sharp decline in energy coal imports in January – June 2020 (–27 per cent YoY). Power demand declined by –7 per cent YoY in the same period, while domestic coal output was quite resilient, at –3 per cent YoY.
Demand from the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was weak in advance of COVID–19 and lockdowns have deepened the malaise. In calendar 2019, the weakness reflected commercially driven coal–to–gas switching in parts of Europe, where relatively cheap pipeline gas and LNG imports, plus a steep rise in the price of European Carbon Allowances (ECAs)30, have driven generator behaviour. In calendar 2020 to date, all of these factors have remained in place and in some instances they have been amplified by COVID–19: and demand for power itself has now fallen sharply. Renewables have been able to take a larger share of that shrinking pie BHP concluded in its latest Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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