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Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
 Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
According to BHP, the gCNewc 6000 kcal/kg FOB Newcastle index (hereafter 6000kcal) averaged around $61/t over the half, down from around $68/t in the first half of financial 2020. Prices ranged from a high of around $74/t to a low of around $50/t. That is below the 2015/16 trough in real terms. Based on the Wood Mackenzie operating cost curve, more than half of seaborne supply (comprising all grades of energy coal) was likely experiencing negative margins with 6000kcal prices in the low $50s.
The 5500kcal index averaged around $49/t over the same period, with a high of around $58/t and a low of around $38/t, which was where it closed out the half year.
BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook further noted that, the spread between the spot indexes for gCNewc 6000kcal and 5500kcal reverted to historical average of close to 20 per cent in the second half of financial year 2020, down from around 30 per cent in the 2019 calendar year.
“While not directly relevant to our business, there was a compression of spreads between the lower grades of energy coal (the 5000, 4200 and 3400 gross–as–received29 kcal brackets) as prices traded deep into the cost curve. Supply has been “sticky” in most export jurisdictions, with the exception of Indonesia, where output has been materially lower. Indonesian supply is prominent in these lower quality brackets” says BHP. Developed Asian markets, who are the largest buyers of >5500kcal product, have been weak under the shadow of COVID–19. Japanese imports contracted by –3 per cent YoY in the first half of the 2020 calendar year, while power demand was down -4 per cent YoY, South Korean imports contracted by –11% per cent.
Chinese demand for seaborne energy coal according to BHP’s Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20, rebounded as lockdowns were lifted, with consumption of coal at coastal power plants back in the normal seasonal range by April 2020. Hydro generation has been inconsistent, along with the weather, with dry conditions early in the year then giving way to floods. The market consensus has been that the 271–281 Mt import inflow registered in calendar years 2017 and 2018 would serve as an informal objective for total coal imports (including metallurgical and lignite) in calendar 2020, rather than assuming that the jump to around 300Mt in 2019 was the new norm. Enforcement of quotas by month and by port, including clamping down on the practice of trading firms clearing customs at one port but discharging at another, have been somewhat effective. Even so, with so much product being forced to clear to China under the Great Lockdown, some provinces and individual ports had already exhausted full year quotas by May.
India saw a sharp decline in energy coal imports in January – June 2020 (–27 per cent YoY). Power demand declined by –7 per cent YoY in the same period, while domestic coal output was quite resilient, at –3 per cent YoY.
Demand from the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was weak in advance of COVID–19 and lockdowns have deepened the malaise. In calendar 2019, the weakness reflected commercially driven coal–to–gas switching in parts of Europe, where relatively cheap pipeline gas and LNG imports, plus a steep rise in the price of European Carbon Allowances (ECAs)30, have driven generator behaviour. In calendar 2020 to date, all of these factors have remained in place and in some instances they have been amplified by COVID–19: and demand for power itself has now fallen sharply. Renewables have been able to take a larger share of that shrinking pie BHP concluded in its latest Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
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Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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