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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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