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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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