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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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