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Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weakness in rates may weigh on the financial profile of PT Buana Lintas Lautan Tbk (BULL, B+/Negative), which has around 15% of its fleet capacity earning revenue based on international spot rates.
The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, which is made up from 12 Baltic international routes and mainly for crude oil shipping, has declined to below 500 points, from an average of 1,200 in March-April 2020, and is at its lowest since 2009. The index averaged 855 points in 2019 and around 770 points since 2009. Similarly, the Baltic Clean Tanker Index for refined fuel shipping has fallen to below 400 points from an average of around 1,305 points in April 2020.
The sharp fall in rates follows lower demand for global oil transportation with the OPEC+ alliance announcing in April 2020 an agreement to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day (mbpd), or 10% of global output, from May 1. The group agreed in June to extend the production cut by one month through the end of July. The cut in output also resulted in a sharp rally in crude oil prices, with Brent price increasing to over USD40 per barrel (bbl) from around USD20/bbl near mid-April. Higher oil prices reduced the demand for floating storage and such tankers were freed, increasing spare capacity and pressuring rates.
Tanker demand has declined sharply since March-April, when Saudi Arabia increased its oil output ahead of the OPEC+ deal to cut production. The effect of increased oil output on tanker rates was compounded by the sharp fall in oil prices, which caused the futures curve to be in contango and incentivised oil storage on land and in tankers.
Demand for tankers is likely to improve from August with a reduction in the OPEC+ cuts to 7.7mbpd until the end of the 2020 and further to 5.8mbpd from January 2021. However, the output cut will continue weighing on tanker rates and improvement in rates is likely to be a gradual process.
Indonesian tanker operators PT Soechi Lines Tbk (B/Stable) and BULL benefit from largely stable rates in the domestic market, which is protected from foreign competition by cabotage laws and dominated by state-owned oil major PT Pertamina (Persero) (BBB/Stable) which is the main revenue driver.
However, BULL’s exposure to international rate volatility has increased this year. BULL had 24 of its 25 ships, or 93% of its fleet capacity, under standard time-charter contracts as of end-2019 while one tanker was part of a pool of ships managed by a pool operator and earned revenue based on international spot rates. The share of BULL’s fleet capacity managed by the pool operator has increased to 14% by end-2Q20 with three out of 33 ships being part of the pool. Additionally, BULL has two ships constituting 10% of its capacity under time-charter contracts with a base rate and upside if international spot rates are higher.
The company said it is seeking to switch the fleet under the pool operator to short-term time charter contracts of three to six months from September 2020 to limit the impact of the fall in tanker rates. Nonetheless, the Negative Outlook on BULL’s rating reflects risks to its financial profile from weak international rates, apart from sustained spending on fleet expansion. We estimate FFO gross leverage to increase to 3.8x in 2021, from 2.9x in 2020 (2019: 4.3x), due to lower international rates and EBITDA. We also assume BULL acquires five more ships for USD100 million in 2021.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Australian Coal Association
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