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  • FOR 2020, FORECASTS HAVE GONE FROM A 12 MILLION TONS PRE-COVID DEFICIT TO A 56 MILLION TONS POST-COVID SURPLUS IN INTERNATIONAL STEAM COAL SUPPLY, MAINLY DUE TO LOWER IMPORTS IN CHINA AND INDIA - ASSOCARBONI
  • SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2019 POSITIVELY WITH A 2% ANNUAL GROWTH AND CONFIRMING A GROWING TREND LEADING TO A 50% INCREASE IN VOLUMES IN 10 YEARS - ASSOCARBONI
  • EUROPE GENERATES ELECTRICITY MAINLY FROM COAL (18,2%) AND FROM NUCLEAR (25,5%), CUTTING THE COSTS OF ELECTRICITY BILLS BY AN AVERAGE 30% - ASSOCARBONI
  • COAL CONFIRMED ITS LEADERSHIP AS LEADING FUEL FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION ALSO IN 2019, ACCOUNTING FOR 38% OF OVERALL PRODUCTION AND CLOSING 2019 WITH A 2% INCREASE IN SEABORNE COAL TRADE (1.290 MILLION TONS) - ASSOCARBONI
  • VIETNAM, INDIA, CHINA AND PHILIPPINES ARE THE COUNTRIES THAT CONTRIBUTED THE MOST TO THE GROWTH IN COAL VOLUMES DURING 2019, ACHIEVING RECORD RESULTS IN TERMS OF IMPORT - ASSOCARBONI
  • FOR 2021 EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN SEABORNE COAL TRADE, DRIVEN BY IMPORTS OF NEW EMERGING ASIAN ECONOMIES INCLUDING PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA AND VIETNAM - ASSOCARBONI
  • CONFIRMED THE GROWTH TREND THAT IN THE LAST TEN YEARS HAS LED TO A 50% INCREASE IN THE COAL MARKETED VOLUMES - ASSOCARBONI
  • AUGUST 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC BUYERS INCLUDING POWER PRODUCERS FIXED AT US$ 50.34 A TON

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Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Intermodal logoDuring the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear impact on the SnP market. The period in which Covid-19 prevailed in both Asia and Europe has brought many changes and created great insecurity to shipowners, a feeling that has not totally disappeared as there is always the fear of a new potential lockdown. However, market dynamics during the last month attracted the interest of many investors, an interest that had moved to the side-lines for many months amidst the low freight rates and the technical issues in inspecting and delivering vessels. 
 
As a result, secondhand sales in the last month increased greatly, compared to the March-April period while the Dry bulk candidates draw most of buyer’s attention. Consequently, this had an upward impact on asset values and mainly on bigger sizes such as Panamax and Capesize vessels, a consequence not limited to the higher freight rates but also due to the fact that many buyers rushed to buy secondhand ships. In contrast to the rest of the sizes, the Handysize secondhand activity did not support such a rise on vessel values despite the fact that many sales took place.
 
An interesting fact regarding the SnP market is that during this crisis, the most affected prices were those of Handsizes. We have witnessed 10 years old ships more than 30k dwt being sold for approximately 5.5 million and similar Japanese ships with both SS and DD passed being sold for about USD 7 million. Also impressive was the deal in the Handysize sector, which happened recently, where Nisshin Shipping sold two Japanese 38k dwt vessels built in 2014 for USD 12.5 million; evidence that the Handysize prices didn't follow the same trend of the other sizes. 
 
On the other hand, In the Supramax sector, owner of a Japanese 15 years old vessel in early-mid June was aiming at low USD 6 million while the same vessel today, is trading at low USD 7 million, an increase of 15-20% on its asset value.
 
It is worth mentioning that although we saw vessels staying spot or even mooring for days during the first quarter of 2020, almost a similar situation to 2016, prices did not retreat at the same levels. This indicates that the shipowners did not follow the similar trends as of during 2016, where Japanese 15-years old Supramaxes and 10 years old Panamaxes have been sold at 3-3.5 million and 6 million respectively.
 
Let us hope that the sentiment will maintain its upward momentum and we will finally see a better market ahead.
By George Iliopoulos
 
SnP Broker
 
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima

Mr.George Panagopoulos


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
 
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