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  • FOR 2020, FORECASTS HAVE GONE FROM A 12 MILLION TONS PRE-COVID DEFICIT TO A 56 MILLION TONS POST-COVID SURPLUS IN INTERNATIONAL STEAM COAL SUPPLY, MAINLY DUE TO LOWER IMPORTS IN CHINA AND INDIA - ASSOCARBONI
  • SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2019 POSITIVELY WITH A 2% ANNUAL GROWTH AND CONFIRMING A GROWING TREND LEADING TO A 50% INCREASE IN VOLUMES IN 10 YEARS - ASSOCARBONI
  • EUROPE GENERATES ELECTRICITY MAINLY FROM COAL (18,2%) AND FROM NUCLEAR (25,5%), CUTTING THE COSTS OF ELECTRICITY BILLS BY AN AVERAGE 30% - ASSOCARBONI
  • COAL CONFIRMED ITS LEADERSHIP AS LEADING FUEL FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION ALSO IN 2019, ACCOUNTING FOR 38% OF OVERALL PRODUCTION AND CLOSING 2019 WITH A 2% INCREASE IN SEABORNE COAL TRADE (1.290 MILLION TONS) - ASSOCARBONI
  • VIETNAM, INDIA, CHINA AND PHILIPPINES ARE THE COUNTRIES THAT CONTRIBUTED THE MOST TO THE GROWTH IN COAL VOLUMES DURING 2019, ACHIEVING RECORD RESULTS IN TERMS OF IMPORT - ASSOCARBONI
  • FOR 2021 EXPECTED AN INCREASE IN SEABORNE COAL TRADE, DRIVEN BY IMPORTS OF NEW EMERGING ASIAN ECONOMIES INCLUDING PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, PHILIPPINES, MALAYSIA AND VIETNAM - ASSOCARBONI
  • CONFIRMED THE GROWTH TREND THAT IN THE LAST TEN YEARS HAS LED TO A 50% INCREASE IN THE COAL MARKETED VOLUMES - ASSOCARBONI
  • AUGUST 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC BUYERS INCLUDING POWER PRODUCERS FIXED AT US$ 50.34 A TON

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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IntermodalIt was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repair sector.  At that time, in February 2020, COVID existed only in China, where almost all ship repair activities were frozen, just a few days after the first announcement from the Chinese government that the CNY will be postponed till 10th of February. From that day till today, the sector has been challenged in many ways, with different locations being affected every time and in various extents.
 
The virus spread flow, when was causing a lock-down in one region, the same time was overfilling with massive bookings for ship repairs these regions which were still able to offer such services. Initially, when China was isolated, both Singapore and Arabian Gulf faced a massive demand for drydock slots, which was much greater than what they were able to accommodate. A few weeks later, European and Turkish shipyards seized operations and China has slowly resumed its activities. Nowadays, while China has almost fully recovered from the shortage of the manpower, Singapore and Arabian Gulf are underperforming.
 
Owners throughout this period have left with fewer options for drydocking their fleet while at the same time must overcome some commonly found difficulties as described below. Due to the travel restrictions, worldwide, Owners do have the only option to attend remotely their ship drydocking. Repairs are being carried out with local superintendents, which are not familiar with Company’s operating norms, while control on the projects is slack with decision making very slow. In addition, by having only a few options from yards under operation, Owners have to eventually select a yard which is usually heavily loaded and, in some cases, do not match ideally to the project in terms of cost, quality or location.  A major problem during this time is the uncertainty of the situation during the planning phase. While for many projects, yard’s selection process is correct, when the vessel is arriving to the yard, the criteria may change, and new challenges need to be overcome. Last, source of local service engineers and unnecessary delays in delivery of spare parts are also a common problem to handle. An example describing the extent of the later one, in China, since oversees UTM engineers cannot travel; there is a severe shortage on local UTM companies forcing the competition against the ship Owners.
 
The greatest challenge is for specialized non-conventional vessels, being repaired in certain areas, where during certain lockdowns, Owners are left with no other options for carrying out their repairs.
 
Important to mention that COVID outbreak which has resulted to a severe drop in oil prices, has also narrow the price spread between high and low Sulphur heavy fuel oil. This has brought all future scrubber retrofit projects under a big question mark.
 
While considering the above, leaving ahead the second half of the year which will hopefully coincide with the time when the world will get the virus under control, it is expected to have another wave of ship repairs to fill again most of the yards. This peak is going to be extremely high considering the massive postponements on the repairs during the last 6 months. 
By Vassilis Vassiliou
Ship-repair Broker
 
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima

Mr.George Panagopoulos


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
 
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.


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