COALspot.com keeps you connected across the coal world
  • AUGUST 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC BUYERS INCLUDING POWER PRODUCERS FIXED AT US$ 50.34 A TON

Submit Your Articles
We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc.

To Submit your article please click here.

International Energy Events


WTI Crude Oil

BRENT Crude Oil

Search News
Latest CoalNews Headlines
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
IEEFA LOGOAssessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
 
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have lower sales volumes to India and China for 2020. 
 
This may also reflect cyclical and secular trends if both major markets continue to priorities domestic production ahead of imports. To stress test our assumptions about Indonesia’s coal export prospects, we evaluated the following key fundaments for 10 of Indonesia’s leading coal producers:
  • Percentage and volume of sales to India and China in 2018–19
  • Sales short falls for 2020 if year-on-year sales to India and China fall by 20% and 10%, respectively 
  • Company rankings in terms of short fall, by volume and by percentage. 
To put each company’s export risk exposure in context, we compiled coal sales volumes to China and India, as disclosed by the 11 listed Indonesian companies. We note that ABM Investama does not disclose sales volumes or revenue breakdowns by country. For Geo Resources and Golden Energy, we used their revenue breakdowns to estimate shipment volumes to the major markets. In 2018, Bumi Resources sold 25.3mt of coal to China and India, which is 83% more than the second-placed Indika Energy, which had combined sales of 13.8mt. Adaro was ranked third, with 13.6mt. In relation to China, Bumi had top ranking in 2018, with 13.9mt, 28% ahead of second-placed Indika, with 10.8mt. For India, Bumi also took the top rank with 11.4mt,which is 90% ahead of second-placed Adaro, with 6.0mt.
 
IEEFA Sample Coal Companies' 2018 Total, China and India Sales Volumes (million tonnes)
 
In 2019, Bumi Resources sold 24.7mt of coal to China and India, 34% more than second-placed Golden Energy, which had combined sales of 18.4mt. Adaro was ranked third, with 16.0mt. For China, Indika ranked first in 2019,with 12.2mt, 5% ahead of second-placed Golden Energy, with 11.7mt. In India, Bumi ranked first, with 13.3mt,50% ahead of second-placed Adaro, with 8.9 mt.
 
IEEFA Sample Coal Companies' 2019 Total, China and India Sales Volumes (million tonnes)
 
In 2019, the companies in our sample accounted for 66% of total Indonesian coal exports, these same companies accounted for 43% of Indonesia’s exports to China, and the IEEFA sample also accounted for 43% of exports to India.
 
IEEFA Sample and Other's Share of 2018-19 Total, China and India Sales Volumes (million tonnes)
 
Based on IEEFA’s data, we estimate that the smaller producers outside our sample accounted for 57% of exports to China and India in 2019. This compares to their total share of 34% of all Indonesian coal exports in 2019. This means the smaller producers are more exposed to the two large markets and may have difficulty diversifying away and finding new export markets.
 
Estimating the Shortfall and Impact
When estimating the shortfall faced by Indonesian coal producers, we based our calculations on the reported 2019 full-year volumes for China and India. We estimate they face year-on-year declines in exports of 10% to China and 20% to India.
 
IEEFA Sample's 2019 Total Sales, 2020 China and India Sales Shortfall (million tonnes, Percentage)
 
IEEFA estimates that the three companies most at risk in terms of volume to these two major markets are Bumi with 3.8mt, and Golden Energy and Adaro, each with around 2.5mt. In terms of percentage of total sales volume, the three companies most at risk are Golden Energy at 8.4%, Harum at 7.7% and Geo Energy at 6.6%. A shortfall in volume would mean these producers would be less able to cut costs, and they would have to consider either reducing output or finding new customers to take up the shortfall. However, we stress that when we apply the same calculation to other Indonesian coal producers’ export volumes to China and India, it shows that they face greater risks.
 
IEEFA Sample and Other's 2019 Total, China and India Sales Volumes, 2020E Shortfall (million tonnes, Percentage)
 
However, we highlight that other non-listed and smaller-scale coal producers account for 57% of total coal exports to China and India in 2019. We estimate that these producers outside our sample could face a total shortfall of 11%. These producers may have customer bases that are less diversified than those of our 10-company sample. Due to smaller companies' less detailed financial disclosure, it is difficult to analyze the financial impact of the shortfall. However, the smaller producers have less access to public debt and equity markets and maybe less able to manage the financial impact of such a shortfall.
 
Conclusion
The Indonesian coal industry not only has to contend with lower coal prices, it must deal with lower export volumes to the two key markets of China and India, which account for more than 50% of total exports. 
 
In 2019, China accounted for 29% of Indonesian coal exports and India accounted for 23%. Our analysis of demand and supply trends suggests that exports could undergo year-on-year declines of 10% to China and 20% to India. 
 
Of the 10 listed companies in our sample, those that were most highly geared to China and India in 2019 were, by volume to both markets, Bumi, Golden Energy and Resources, and Adaro. As a percentage of total sales to both markets, the three most geared were Golden Energy and Resources, Harum, and Geo Resources. 
 
We estimate that smaller producers outside our sample accounted for 57% of total exports to China and India in 2019. This compares to their 34% total share of all Indonesian coal exports in 2019. However, these producers risk facing an 11% sales volume shortfall in 2020,compared to a 5% shortfall for our sample group. This means the smaller producers are more exposed to the two large markets and may have difficulty diversifying away and finding new export markets.
 
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
 
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst 
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.


If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.

Recent News

Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...


Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic   Three major fossil fuel ...


Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year   ...


Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...


Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...


   3 4 5 6 7   
Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6031
News by Category
Popular News
 
Total Members : 27,022
Member
Panelist
User ID
Password
Remember Me
By logging on you accept our TERMS OF USE.
Free
Register
Forgot Password
 
Our Members Are From ...

  • CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
  • Platts
  • Asian Development Bank
  • Gupta Coal India Ltd
  • Coaltrans Conferences
  • Credit Suisse - India
  • Ministry of Transport, Egypt
  • Cargill India Pvt Ltd
  • Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
  • Arch Coal - USA
  • Indian School of Mines
  • Reliance Power - India
  • Economic Council, Georgia
  • ING Bank NV - Singapore
  • Jatenergy - Australia
  • Edison Trading Spa - Italy
  • Marubeni Corporation - India
  • Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
  • Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
  • J M Baxi & Co - India
  • Chamber of Mines of South Africa
  • White Energy Company Limited
  • Mitsui
  • Vedanta Resources Plc - India
  • Maersk Broker
  • OCBC - Singapore
  • Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
  • Bank of China, Malaysia
  • Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
  • Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
  • SUEK AG - Indonesia
  • Pinang Coal Indonesia
  • Cemex - Philippines
  • Enel Italy
  • Goldman Sachs - Singapore
  • Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
  • Qatrana Cement - Jordan
  • Minerals Council of Australia
  • Anglo American - United Kingdom
  • Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
  • VISA Power Limited - India
  • Parliament of New Zealand
  • TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
  • Japan Coal Energy Center
  • Berau Coal - Indonesia
  • Merrill Lynch Bank
  • Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
  • Rudhra Energy - India
  • Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
  • Interocean Group of Companies - India
  • Idemitsu - Japan
  • Latin American Coal - Colombia
  • Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
  • EMO - The Netherlands
  • Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
  • NALCO India
  • Petrosea - Indonesia
  • Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
  • Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
  • Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
  • APGENCO India
  • Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
  • PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
  • SMG Consultants - Indonesia
  • ICICI Bank Limited - India
  • Malco - India
  • Inco-Indonesia
  • Mitsubishi Corporation
  • Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
  • Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
  • OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
  • IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
  • Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
  • MEC Coal - Indonesia
  • MS Steel International - UAE
  • GMR Energy Limited - India
  • Mitra SK Pvt Ltd - India
  • KOWEPO - South Korea
  • Freeport Indonesia
  • CNBM International Corporation - China
  • Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
  • Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
  • Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
  • Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
  • Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
  • Indogreen Group - Indonesia
  • Central Electricity Authority - India
  • Sical Logistics Limited - India
  • Cardiff University - UK
  • McKinsey & Co - India
  • Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
  • GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
  • Commonwealth Bank - Australia
  • Videocon Industries ltd - India
  • Dalmia Cement Bharat India
  • Thomson Reuters GRC
  • Kobe Steel Ltd - Japan
  • Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
  • Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
  • PLN Batubara - Indonesia
  • Cement Manufacturers Association - India
  • Ministry of Mines - Canada
  • LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
  • Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
  • Mjunction Services Limited - India
  • Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
  • Panama Canal Authority
  • Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
  • TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
  • Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
  • Siam City Cement - Thailand
  • Bhushan Steel Limited - India
  • Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
  • Cebu Energy, Philippines
  • TGV SRAAC LIMITED, India
  • KPCL - India
  • bp singapore
  • Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
  • Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
  • New Zealand Coal & Carbon
  • SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
  • Carbofer General Trading SA - India
  • Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
  • Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
  • EIA - United States
  • Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
  • Ince & co LLP
  • Geoservices-GeoAssay Lab
  • Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
  • Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
  • Baramulti Group, Indonesia
  • Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
  • Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
  • Sucofindo - Indonesia
  • IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
  • Lafarge - France
  • Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
  • AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
  • Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
  • Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
  • Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
  • Adani Power Ltd - India
  • Star Paper Mills Limited - India
  • Mercator Lines Limited - India
  • Energy Development Corp, Philippines
  • Surastha Cement
  • Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
  • South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
  • Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
  • Xstrata Coal
  • European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
  • Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
  • London Commodity Brokers - England
  • Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
  • Deutsche Bank - India
  • IOL Indonesia
  • Medco Energi Mining Internasional
  • Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
  • Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
  • International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
  • Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
  • Trasteel International SA, Italy
  • Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
  • Peabody Energy - USA
  • Shree Cement - India
  • Tanito Harum - Indonesia
  • Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
  • The University of Queensland
  • GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
  • Central Java Power - Indonesia
  • San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
  • GB Group - China
  • RBS Sempra - UK
  • PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
  • Georgia Ports Authority, United States
  • World Coal - UK
  • Thermax Limited - India
  • Bank of America
  • Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
  • Thiess Contractors Indonesia
  • Total Coal South Africa
  • Indian Oil Corporation Limited
  • ASAPP Information Group - India
  • Coeclerici Indonesia
  • CCIC - Indonesia
  • Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
  • Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
  • Gresik Semen - Indonesia
  • Eastern Energy - Thailand
  • Infraline Energy - India
  • IMC Shipping - Singapore
  • ETA - Dubai
  • Thai Mozambique Logistica
  • Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
  • Eastern Coal Council - USA
  • Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
  • Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
  • Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
  • Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
  • Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
  • Bangladesh Power Developement Board
  • GNFC Limited - India
  • Arutmin Indonesia
  • JPower - Japan
  • Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
  • Independent Power Producers Association of India
  • Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
  • Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
  • CoalTek, United States
  • Singapore Mercantile Exchange
  • India Bulls Power Limited - India
  • Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
  • U S Energy Resources
  • Thailand Anthracite
  • Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
  • SGS (Thailand) Limited
  • Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
  • Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
  • Inspectorate - India
  • Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
  • Platou - Singapore
  • Ernst & Young Pvt. Ltd.
  • Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
  • Moodys - Singapore
  • Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
  • Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
  • Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
  • ANZ Bank - Australia
  • Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
  • Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
  • Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
  • SRK Consulting
  • Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
  • Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
  • Indika Energy - Indonesia
  • Argus Media - Singapore
  • Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
  • PLN - Indonesia
  • Vitol - Bahrain
  • GHCL Limited - India
  • Parry Sugars Refinery, India
  • Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
  • Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
  • Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
  • Permata Bank - Indonesia
  • BRS Brokers - Singapore
  • Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
  • Indonesia Power. PT
  • Mechel - Russia
  • Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
  • The India Cements Ltd
  • Cosco
  • Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
  • Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
  • Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
  • World Bank
  • Coal and Oil Company - UAE
  • BNP Paribas - Singapore
  • Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
  • PTC India Limited - India
  • HSBC - Hong Kong
  • Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
  • Thriveni
  • Tamil Nadu electricity Board
  • KEPCO - South Korea
  • Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
  • Vale Mozambique
  • Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
  • Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
  • Malabar Cements Ltd - India
  • Agrawal Coal Company - India
  • Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
  • WorleyParsons
  • Sojitz Corporation - Japan
  • Maruti Cements - India
  • Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
  • Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
  • NTPC Limited - India
  • TRAFIGURA, South Korea
  • Adaro Indonesia
  • Romanian Commodities Exchange
  • Core Mineral Indonesia
  • Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
  • PowerSource Philippines DevCo
  • Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
  • Australian Coal Association
  • Petron Corporation, Philippines
  • Runge Indonesia
  • Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
  • Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
  • Humpuss - Indonesia
  • Deloitte Consulting - India
  • Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
  • Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
  • GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
  • Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
  • Posco Energy - South Korea
  • globalCOAL - UK
  • Clarksons - UK
  • TANGEDCO India
  • Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
  • Samsung - South Korea
  • Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
  • UOB Asia (HK) Ltd
  • Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
  • Planning Commission, India
  • Indonesian Coal Mining Association
  • KPMG - USA
  • The Treasury - Australian Government
  • Heidelberg Cement - Germany
  • UBS Singapore
  • Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
  • TNPL - India
  • Tata Power - India
  • Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
  • Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
  • ACC Limited - India
  • Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
  • Fearnleys - India
  • Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
  • SASOL - South Africa
  • Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
  • Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
  • Aditya Birla Group - India
  • Bangkok Bank PCL
  • JPMorgan - India
  • McConnell Dowell - Australia
  • Barclays Capital - USA
  • PetroVietnam
  • Bhatia International Limited - India
  • Indorama - Singapore
  • DBS Bank - Singapore
  • Asia Cement - Taiwan
  • Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
  • IBC Asia (S) Pte Ltd
  • Russian Coal LLC
  • Wilmar Investment Holdings
  • Xindia Steels Limited - India
  • Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
  • Noble Europe Ltd - UK
  • Britmindo - Indonesia
  • Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
  • Renaissance Capital - South Africa
  • Coal India Limited
  • Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
  • The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
  • CESC Limited - India
  • Coal Orbis AG
  • Maybank - Singapore
  • SMC Global Power, Philippines
  • Shenhua Group - China
  • Glencore India Pvt. Ltd
  • Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines