COALspot.com keeps you connected across the coal world
  • AUGUST 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR EXPORTS AND DOMESTIC BUYERS INCLUDING POWER PRODUCERS FIXED AT US$ 50.34 A TON

Submit Your Articles
We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc.

To Submit your article please click here.

International Energy Events


WTI Crude Oil

BRENT Crude Oil

Search News
Latest CoalNews Headlines
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
IEEFA LOGOAssessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
 
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have lower sales volumes to India and China for 2020. 
 
This may also reflect cyclical and secular trends if both major markets continue to priorities domestic production ahead of imports. To stress test our assumptions about Indonesia’s coal export prospects, we evaluated the following key fundaments for 10 of Indonesia’s leading coal producers:
  • Percentage and volume of sales to India and China in 2018–19
  • Sales short falls for 2020 if year-on-year sales to India and China fall by 20% and 10%, respectively 
  • Company rankings in terms of short fall, by volume and by percentage. 
To put each company’s export risk exposure in context, we compiled coal sales volumes to China and India, as disclosed by the 11 listed Indonesian companies. We note that ABM Investama does not disclose sales volumes or revenue breakdowns by country. For Geo Resources and Golden Energy, we used their revenue breakdowns to estimate shipment volumes to the major markets. In 2018, Bumi Resources sold 25.3mt of coal to China and India, which is 83% more than the second-placed Indika Energy, which had combined sales of 13.8mt. Adaro was ranked third, with 13.6mt. In relation to China, Bumi had top ranking in 2018, with 13.9mt, 28% ahead of second-placed Indika, with 10.8mt. For India, Bumi also took the top rank with 11.4mt,which is 90% ahead of second-placed Adaro, with 6.0mt.
 
IEEFA Sample Coal Companies' 2018 Total, China and India Sales Volumes (million tonnes)
 
In 2019, Bumi Resources sold 24.7mt of coal to China and India, 34% more than second-placed Golden Energy, which had combined sales of 18.4mt. Adaro was ranked third, with 16.0mt. For China, Indika ranked first in 2019,with 12.2mt, 5% ahead of second-placed Golden Energy, with 11.7mt. In India, Bumi ranked first, with 13.3mt,50% ahead of second-placed Adaro, with 8.9 mt.
 
IEEFA Sample Coal Companies' 2019 Total, China and India Sales Volumes (million tonnes)
 
In 2019, the companies in our sample accounted for 66% of total Indonesian coal exports, these same companies accounted for 43% of Indonesia’s exports to China, and the IEEFA sample also accounted for 43% of exports to India.
 
IEEFA Sample and Other's Share of 2018-19 Total, China and India Sales Volumes (million tonnes)
 
Based on IEEFA’s data, we estimate that the smaller producers outside our sample accounted for 57% of exports to China and India in 2019. This compares to their total share of 34% of all Indonesian coal exports in 2019. This means the smaller producers are more exposed to the two large markets and may have difficulty diversifying away and finding new export markets.
 
Estimating the Shortfall and Impact
When estimating the shortfall faced by Indonesian coal producers, we based our calculations on the reported 2019 full-year volumes for China and India. We estimate they face year-on-year declines in exports of 10% to China and 20% to India.
 
IEEFA Sample's 2019 Total Sales, 2020 China and India Sales Shortfall (million tonnes, Percentage)
 
IEEFA estimates that the three companies most at risk in terms of volume to these two major markets are Bumi with 3.8mt, and Golden Energy and Adaro, each with around 2.5mt. In terms of percentage of total sales volume, the three companies most at risk are Golden Energy at 8.4%, Harum at 7.7% and Geo Energy at 6.6%. A shortfall in volume would mean these producers would be less able to cut costs, and they would have to consider either reducing output or finding new customers to take up the shortfall. However, we stress that when we apply the same calculation to other Indonesian coal producers’ export volumes to China and India, it shows that they face greater risks.
 
IEEFA Sample and Other's 2019 Total, China and India Sales Volumes, 2020E Shortfall (million tonnes, Percentage)
 
However, we highlight that other non-listed and smaller-scale coal producers account for 57% of total coal exports to China and India in 2019. We estimate that these producers outside our sample could face a total shortfall of 11%. These producers may have customer bases that are less diversified than those of our 10-company sample. Due to smaller companies' less detailed financial disclosure, it is difficult to analyze the financial impact of the shortfall. However, the smaller producers have less access to public debt and equity markets and maybe less able to manage the financial impact of such a shortfall.
 
Conclusion
The Indonesian coal industry not only has to contend with lower coal prices, it must deal with lower export volumes to the two key markets of China and India, which account for more than 50% of total exports. 
 
In 2019, China accounted for 29% of Indonesian coal exports and India accounted for 23%. Our analysis of demand and supply trends suggests that exports could undergo year-on-year declines of 10% to China and 20% to India. 
 
Of the 10 listed companies in our sample, those that were most highly geared to China and India in 2019 were, by volume to both markets, Bumi, Golden Energy and Resources, and Adaro. As a percentage of total sales to both markets, the three most geared were Golden Energy and Resources, Harum, and Geo Resources. 
 
We estimate that smaller producers outside our sample accounted for 57% of total exports to China and India in 2019. This compares to their 34% total share of all Indonesian coal exports in 2019. However, these producers risk facing an 11% sales volume shortfall in 2020,compared to a 5% shortfall for our sample group. This means the smaller producers are more exposed to the two large markets and may have difficulty diversifying away and finding new export markets.
 
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
 
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst 
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.


If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.

Recent News

Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...


Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...


Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...


Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...


Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...


   2 3 4 5 6   
Showing 16 to 20 news of total 6038
News by Category
Popular News
 
Total Members : 27,028
Member
Panelist
User ID
Password
Remember Me
By logging on you accept our TERMS OF USE.
Free
Register
Forgot Password
 
Our Members Are From ...

  • Lafarge - France
  • Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
  • World Coal - UK
  • India Bulls Power Limited - India
  • Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
  • Agrawal Coal Company - India
  • Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
  • Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
  • Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
  • Mechel - Russia
  • TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
  • Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
  • RBS Sempra - UK
  • KPCL - India
  • Xindia Steels Limited - India
  • Indika Energy - Indonesia
  • Surastha Cement
  • Ince & co LLP
  • Indonesian Coal Mining Association
  • Marubeni Corporation - India
  • Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
  • Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
  • Noble Europe Ltd - UK
  • Central Java Power - Indonesia
  • Reliance Power - India
  • Bank of China, Malaysia
  • The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
  • Bhatia International Limited - India
  • Cement Manufacturers Association - India
  • Parry Sugars Refinery, India
  • Adani Power Ltd - India
  • SASOL - South Africa
  • Malco - India
  • Romanian Commodities Exchange
  • Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
  • Arch Coal - USA
  • International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
  • White Energy Company Limited
  • Coal India Limited
  • Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
  • CNBM International Corporation - China
  • globalCOAL - UK
  • Merrill Lynch Bank
  • Gupta Coal India Ltd
  • IBC Asia (S) Pte Ltd
  • UBS Singapore
  • Anglo American - United Kingdom
  • Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
  • Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
  • ETA - Dubai
  • VISA Power Limited - India
  • IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
  • Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
  • Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
  • Mitsubishi Corporation
  • Gresik Semen - Indonesia
  • bp singapore
  • KPMG - USA
  • Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
  • PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
  • Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
  • Indorama - Singapore
  • Infraline Energy - India
  • IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
  • Runge Indonesia
  • Thailand Anthracite
  • Vitol - Bahrain
  • Dalmia Cement Bharat India
  • GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
  • Australian Coal Association
  • Singapore Mercantile Exchange
  • Shenhua Group - China
  • PLN Batubara - Indonesia
  • Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
  • Arutmin Indonesia
  • Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
  • Fearnleys - India
  • SGS (Thailand) Limited
  • Core Mineral Indonesia
  • J M Baxi & Co - India
  • PTC India Limited - India
  • NTPC Limited - India
  • PLN - Indonesia
  • GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
  • Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
  • TRAFIGURA, South Korea
  • Asia Cement - Taiwan
  • Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
  • GB Group - China
  • WorleyParsons
  • IMC Shipping - Singapore
  • Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
  • Samsung - South Korea
  • Rudhra Energy - India
  • Siam City Cement - Thailand
  • Planning Commission, India
  • Barclays Capital - USA
  • U S Energy Resources
  • The University of Queensland
  • Enel Italy
  • Humpuss - Indonesia
  • Cemex - Philippines
  • Latin American Coal - Colombia
  • PowerSource Philippines DevCo
  • Credit Suisse - India
  • Tanito Harum - Indonesia
  • DBS Bank - Singapore
  • Coal and Oil Company - UAE
  • Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
  • Posco Energy - South Korea
  • Britmindo - Indonesia
  • Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
  • Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
  • Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
  • Baramulti Group, Indonesia
  • Platou - Singapore
  • Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
  • Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
  • London Commodity Brokers - England
  • EIA - United States
  • Petron Corporation, Philippines
  • Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
  • Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
  • Interocean Group of Companies - India
  • ING Bank NV - Singapore
  • Malabar Cements Ltd - India
  • CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
  • Videocon Industries ltd - India
  • KOWEPO - South Korea
  • Ministry of Mines - Canada
  • Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
  • Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
  • New Zealand Coal & Carbon
  • Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
  • Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
  • ASAPP Information Group - India
  • Eastern Energy - Thailand
  • World Bank
  • Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
  • Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
  • Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
  • Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
  • Indogreen Group - Indonesia
  • HSBC - Hong Kong
  • Inspectorate - India
  • Aditya Birla Group - India
  • GNFC Limited - India
  • Sojitz Corporation - Japan
  • Thai Mozambique Logistica
  • Trasteel International SA, Italy
  • Goldman Sachs - Singapore
  • Clarksons - UK
  • Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
  • Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
  • SRK Consulting
  • Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
  • Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
  • Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
  • Thermax Limited - India
  • Eastern Coal Council - USA
  • TGV SRAAC LIMITED, India
  • Berau Coal - Indonesia
  • Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
  • Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
  • Argus Media - Singapore
  • Jatenergy - Australia
  • Independent Power Producers Association of India
  • Heidelberg Cement - Germany
  • Cebu Energy, Philippines
  • Inco-Indonesia
  • Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
  • Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
  • Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
  • McConnell Dowell - Australia
  • Vale Mozambique
  • Moodys - Singapore
  • JPMorgan - India
  • Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
  • AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
  • Japan Coal Energy Center
  • Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
  • Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
  • Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
  • Petrosea - Indonesia
  • Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
  • Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
  • Medco Energi Mining Internasional
  • Bangkok Bank PCL
  • KEPCO - South Korea
  • Glencore India Pvt. Ltd
  • LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
  • Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
  • San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
  • Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
  • Maersk Broker
  • Coeclerici Indonesia
  • TNPL - India
  • GMR Energy Limited - India
  • South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
  • Chamber of Mines of South Africa
  • Permata Bank - Indonesia
  • Thiess Contractors Indonesia
  • Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
  • NALCO India
  • CESC Limited - India
  • Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
  • Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
  • Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
  • Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
  • ANZ Bank - Australia
  • Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
  • Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
  • Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
  • Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
  • Star Paper Mills Limited - India
  • The Treasury - Australian Government
  • ACC Limited - India
  • MEC Coal - Indonesia
  • EMO - The Netherlands
  • Bangladesh Power Developement Board
  • Asian Development Bank
  • Wilmar Investment Holdings
  • Thriveni
  • Total Coal South Africa
  • Economic Council, Georgia
  • Deutsche Bank - India
  • Edison Trading Spa - Italy
  • Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
  • Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
  • Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
  • Freeport Indonesia
  • Cardiff University - UK
  • TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
  • Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
  • Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
  • Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
  • Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
  • Russian Coal LLC
  • Tamil Nadu electricity Board
  • Thomson Reuters GRC
  • Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
  • Mitra SK Pvt Ltd - India
  • Geoservices-GeoAssay Lab
  • Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
  • Central Electricity Authority - India
  • Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
  • Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
  • Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
  • Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
  • Energy Development Corp, Philippines
  • Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
  • Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
  • Ministry of Transport, Egypt
  • Tata Power - India
  • Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
  • Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
  • Bhushan Steel Limited - India
  • Bank of America
  • Maybank - Singapore
  • Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
  • Idemitsu - Japan
  • Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
  • Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
  • Adaro Indonesia
  • BNP Paribas - Singapore
  • Renaissance Capital - South Africa
  • Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
  • Cargill India Pvt Ltd
  • Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
  • GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
  • Sucofindo - Indonesia
  • CCIC - Indonesia
  • SMC Global Power, Philippines
  • Shree Cement - India
  • Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
  • Mjunction Services Limited - India
  • Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
  • OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
  • Panama Canal Authority
  • Cosco
  • European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
  • Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
  • Coal Orbis AG
  • Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
  • Indonesia Power. PT
  • CoalTek, United States
  • Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
  • ICICI Bank Limited - India
  • SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
  • Kobe Steel Ltd - Japan
  • Minerals Council of Australia
  • Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
  • McKinsey & Co - India
  • Mercator Lines Limited - India
  • Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
  • SMG Consultants - Indonesia
  • Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
  • Xstrata Coal
  • TANGEDCO India
  • APGENCO India
  • Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
  • Indian Oil Corporation Limited
  • Carbofer General Trading SA - India
  • Peabody Energy - USA
  • IOL Indonesia
  • Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
  • Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
  • GHCL Limited - India
  • Vedanta Resources Plc - India
  • Parliament of New Zealand
  • Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
  • Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
  • Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
  • JPower - Japan
  • Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
  • Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
  • Deloitte Consulting - India
  • Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
  • Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
  • PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
  • The India Cements Ltd
  • Pinang Coal Indonesia
  • Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
  • Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
  • OCBC - Singapore
  • Indian School of Mines
  • SUEK AG - Indonesia
  • Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
  • Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
  • Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
  • Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
  • Sical Logistics Limited - India
  • Qatrana Cement - Jordan
  • Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
  • Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
  • Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
  • MS Steel International - UAE
  • Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
  • BRS Brokers - Singapore
  • Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
  • Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
  • Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
  • Coaltrans Conferences
  • Ernst & Young Pvt. Ltd.
  • Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
  • Commonwealth Bank - Australia
  • Maruti Cements - India
  • Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
  • PetroVietnam
  • Mitsui
  • Platts
  • Georgia Ports Authority, United States
  • UOB Asia (HK) Ltd