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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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