We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
|
|
|
Showing 891 to 895 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
