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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
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Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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