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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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