We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
|
|
|
Showing 766 to 770 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
