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Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
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Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
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Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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