We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
|
|
|
Showing 606 to 610 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
