We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a nationwide lockdown on 25 March, the country’s daily average power output has been 20% lower than the three-year seasonal average. It estimates power sector coal usage may have fallen by as much as 10mt of NAR 5,000 kcal/kg-equivalent coal to 30mt in April. McCloskey Coal reports that India’s coal stockpile is at 165mt and that nearly half (80mt) is at CIL and other mines. This amount represents 30 to 40 days use. Power plant stocks were at 50mt,which is enough for 29 days. Other indicators, such as imports, domestic coal output, and power and steel output, all point to a large year-on-year decline for India’s coal imports.
Industry observers expect a 20%year-on-yearfall in 2020 India’s coal imports. This is in line with our forecast, but we believe there may be further downside risks. As a result of these, IEEFA expects India to import less Indonesian coal, based on our evaluation of the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: After recording year-on-year growth for January, coal imports experienced year-on-year declines for three months, with March and April down 28% and 29%, respectively.
-
Domestic coal production: Coal production from CIL, the largest producer, increased 9.5% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2020.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020 and total power generation was down 32% year-on-year in April.
-
Steel output: From January to April, output was down 20% year-on-year, with April declining 65% year-on-year.
Unlike China, where January to April 2020 coal imports rose, Indian coal imports for the same period were down 18% year-on-year. India’s coal imports have recorded year-on-year declines since February as COIVD-19 disrupted consumption and even the logistics of coal. This is despite average monthly coal benchmark prices falling at least 29% year-on-year over the same period.
According to media reports, CIL’s first quarter of 2020coal production increased 9.5% year-on-year. Although this slowed down to a daily rate of 1.3mt for the first 22 days of April, down 11% year-on-year, these strong gains are bad news for coal exporters to India. The Indian Government has announced measures that are similar to the Chinese Government’s coal import quota. In May, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt (40% of CY2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year.
For the period January to April2020, India’s total power output was down 7.4% year-on-year and its first quarter 2020 thermal power output was down 1.5% year-on-year. We note that total power output recorded an 8.2% year-on-year decline for March and thermal power output fell 12.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output was down 32.4% year-on-year. Data for thermal power output is not yet available but should also be significantly down, in line with total power output.
These falls would be consistent with the year-on-year decline in coal imports since February and the build-up of stockpiles at CIL and power plants.
India’s steel output acts as an indicator of economic activity. Between January and April, February was the only month that recorded a year-on-year rise in steel output, a modest 1.5%. Steel output recorded year-on-year declines of 13.8% in March and 65.2% in April, due to the full month of lockdown that started on 25 March. Against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production in the first quarter of 2020, a build-up of coal stockpiles and a fall in power generation, this level of economic activity presents significant downside risks to India coal imports.
The Indian Government has adopted a policy that supports its domestic coal sector, calling for import reductions. In May 2020, CIL was mandated to replace 100mt of coal (40% of CY 2019 coal imports) with domestic non-coking coal for the 2020–21 fiscal year. CIL’s first quarter 2020 output grew 9.5% year-on-year, presenting a significant risk to Indian coal imports. The risk is greater for Indonesia, because it exports mainly thermal coal. We believe India may have to continue importing coking coal for steel making because its domestic producers mainly supply thermal coal. Industry observers have estimated a 20% year-on-year decline in India’s coal imports. We agree, but also warn that there is a risk of a larger fall.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
|
|
|
Showing 561 to 565 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
|
| |
| |
|
(1).png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
