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Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
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Showing 951 to 955 news of total 6871 |
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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