We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
 Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitch Ratings says. This is further supported by a commitment to improve compliance from those countries that were unable to reach full conformity with the cuts.
The OPEC+ countries have made radical production cuts in the stress scenario, but it may be more difficult to reach a consensus when the worst of the crisis is over. And it is unclear whether the recovery in oil prices to date is sustainable. Furthermore, demand and production in non-OPEC+ countries, notably the US, will continue to have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and prices. We believe that a normalisation of oil inventory built up in 1H20 will take at least several months.
Crude oil prices rose significantly in May and continued to improve in early June, because the surplus has been reduced materially. A price differential between the physical and financial markets has disappeared, pointing to crude oil market tightening. We believe that a stress case scenario with prices falling significantly below USD30/bbl is now less likely. The market is likely to experience a production deficit in 2H20 due to gradually improving demand and reduced supply.
The OPEC+ cuts were the major contributor to market rebalancing. We estimate that the OPEC+ countries reduced production by around 7.5mmbpd in May compared to March. The cumulative OPEC+ cuts should exceed 9mmbpd in June as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE have committed to cut an additional 1.1mmbpd, while Iraq and Nigeria, which underperformed in May, have promised to improve compliance in June. A resumption of production in Libya, which is not subject to the OPEC+ deal, may increase supply but should be more than offset by additional cuts elsewhere.
Furthermore, production fell in the US as a result both of shut-ins and reduced drilling activity by almost 2mmbpd at end-May compared to March, while Canada cut around 1mmbpd. The number of active drilling rigs in the US declined by 64% compared to the beginning of the year. Production in North America may continue to shrink for a while, but the pace is likely to decelerate due to increased prices. We believe that at USD30/bbl, many producers should be able to stabilise production, while at USD40/bbl or above some would be tempted to increase output, which could limit price recovery.
Estimates suggest crude oil demand increased in May compared to April, and we believe it will improve further from June due to the gradual lifting of lockdown restrictions. Implied oil products consumption in the US improved from a 28% drop in April yoy to a 20% drop in May, driven mainly by increased gasoline consumption (a yoy decline of 25% in May compared to a 44% decline in April), while the consumption of jet fuel remained flat. We believe consumption patterns are similar in Europe, while demand in China bottomed out in February.
Demand recovery is now key in achieving balance in the oil market. It could be undermined in the event of a second coronavirus wave and the re-introduction of lockdowns, although it is not our base case. While consumption of gasoline and diesel could recover by the year-end, jet fuel may lag behind as international travel restrictions may remain in place and demand for business travel may be structurally impaired.
Our ratings are informed by companies’ projected performance at end-2021, rather than in 2020, provided their liquidity is adequate, as we rate “through the cycle”. While we may recalibrate our near-term oil price assumptions to the pace of market rebalancing, our ratings already assume that the market will recover gradually; therefore the most recent improvements will not prompt portfolio-wide rating actions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made new highs for the year this week after strong iron ore demand to the far east continued to develop in the mar ...
Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
|
|
|
Showing 911 to 915 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
