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Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IntermodalIn contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced particularly challenging times, with global demand for the commodity crashing in April and dragging oil prices to unprecedented levels as a result.
 
COVID-19 caused panic in societies, with lockdowns quickly translating to a severe hit to the global economy. Sadly, this epidemic has killed over 393,000 people so far, with over 6,500,000 cases being recorded worldwide, and even today, it continues to spread terror and uncertainty. Hopes are placed on a vaccine being discovered sooner rather than later in order to provide communities with a big relief on a humanitarian level and to eventually restore confidence across the different markets that economies are jump starting again and doing so at full speed ahead. 
 
As far as oil and gas projects from major oil producers are concerned, since the COVID-19 outbreak, delays and cancellations have been announced, while most hydrocarbon projects are expected to be postponed for one up to three years according to reports. Representative examples of this big setback, especially in the short-cycle projects of the African continent, are those of ENI and TOTAL. The two international oil and gas majors, who have the largest presence in Africa, have already cut off around 25-30% of their investment in exploration and production projects in 2020 in an effort to ensure their survival in the long run.
 
As expected, offshore service providers such as AHTS and PSVs, have been also hit by this crisis and are currently going through soft demand and disappointing freights, with today’s challenges proving even worse compared to those during the 2015-2017 period. Most offshore unit owners have already lowered their offers at very realistic levels in order to survive as long as possible, with no increase in the number of laid up units as a result. However, if this situation continues for several more months without no visible signs of improvement, the lay-up option will be the only alternative in order to limit costs, which is also what happened during the 2015-2017 period.
 
Even those more optimistic do not believe that anything will change drastically during the remainder of 2020 for the oil & gas industry, in terms of demand and offshore projects. Undoubtedly, we might see later in the year some tender / projects but a lot of competition is expected for these, which means that no particular positive effect on the industry/rates is expected. It will take a while before we can have a more clear view of what’s ahead and we expect the market to keep facing challenges at least in the short-term, while on the positive side, governments around the world, OPEC and its allies and all concerned bodies and organizations seem to be taking serious action in order to support demand and prices.
By Panos Makrinos
Offshore Director
 
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima

Mr.George Panagopoulos


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
 
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