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Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
Banchero Costa logoIn  the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, as lockdowns shut down much of the global economy, Banchero Costa said in its latest weekly report. Nevertheless, the Pacific basin (and in particular China and Vietnam) remained one of the few brighter spots on the global map, and this helped to shore up demand for Australian coal.
 
In fact, Banchero Costa said, coal exports from ”Down Under” declined by much less than from any other major exporter. In the first 5 months of 2020, Australia exported at least 148.5 mln  tonnes of coal by sea, according to vessel tracking data. This represents a net decline of -4.3% y-o-y, compared to the 155.2 mln tonnes exported in the same five-month period of 2019.
 
On a single-month basis, January 2020 was already down -3.2% y-o-y from January 2019 at 31.9  mlnntonnes.
 
Banchero Costa further noted that, In February, exports from Australia declined further to 28.1  mln tonnes, -12.0% m-o-m, although that was actually +6.5% year-on- year as February last year was unusually slow.
 
In March 2020 loadings rebounded a bit to 30.2 mln tonnes, up +7.6% m-o-m but -7.3% y-o-y. April 2020 was essentially flat with 30.0  mln  tonnes,  a  -0.5%  decline m-o-m and -6.0% y-o-y. In May 2020, preliminary figures indicate just 28.3 mln tonnes, which would be -5.9% m-o-m and -10.0% y-o-y, although this is still subject to upward  revision as we are compiling this data on the first day of June and some May sailings could still be missing in the count.
 
According to Banchero Costa’s weekly report, the majority of coal cargos this year from Australia have been Panamax-sized, with Panamaxes and Kamsarmaxes carrying 58% of total volumes. 12% of volumes were carried on Post-Panamaxes  or  Baby-Capes, and 24% of volumes was shipped on Capesizes or Newcastlemaxes. Just 6%  was  shipped on Supramaxes or Handies. Of total exports this year from Australia,  27.6%  or  40.9  mln tonnes were destined for Japan.
 
Volumes to Japan this year declined by -5.4% y-o-y. A further 17.6 mln tonnes, accounting for 11.9% of the total, were  shipped  to  South  Korea,  a decline of -9.5% year-on-year. Shipments to India were the hardest hit this year,  given the strict   lockdown in the country, declining by a sharp -30.1% y-o-y to 13.2 mln tonnes. India still accounted for 8.9% of Australia’s shipments. Exports to Taiwan also declined by -10.6% y-o-y to 12.3 mln tonnes. Volumes to the European Union were down -20.7% y-o-y to 4.8 mln tonnes said Banchero Costa.
 
There were some bright spots though. Shipments to Mainland China actually increased in January-May this year, by a strong +11.1% y-o-y to 37.1 mln tonnes. China is now the destination for 25.0% of Australia’s coal exports, second only to Japan.
 
Another country which sharply (and surprisingly) ramped up coal imports from Australia is Vietnam. In Jan-May 2020, Australia shipped 6.8 mln tonnes to Vietnam, an increase of +86.6% y-o-y from the 3.6 mln tonnes in the same period last year. Worth noting, that in the corresponding period of 2018 the volumes were just 0.6 mln tonnes.


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