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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non-OPEC supply growth. This growth came despite pipeline constraints in the Permian basin in 1H19, and as independent oil companies began to reduce spending in response to investor demands to raise free cash flow. With regard to infrastructure, Canada also suffered from limited pipeline and storage capacity, which led to a mandate to curtail oil sands production by the Alberta provincial government. Liquids production in Brazil, Australia, Russia and China also contributed to the gains, while part of this growth was offset by heavy declines in Mexico and Norway.
Capital expenditure, including exploration capex in non-OPEC countries, reached a record high of US$741 bn in 2014 when oil price levels were also high. However, in the years that followed and with lower average oil prices, investment dropped to considerably lower levels in 2016. Moreover, since the beginning of the renewed decline in oil prices in 4Q18, the amount of capex has also decreased to US$459 bn in 2019. Capex in 2020 is forecast to show a y-o-y decline of 23%, according to preliminary estimations, which is only approximately half of level of capex in 2014. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 1Q20 has spread globally in a matter of a couple of months, has caused a recession in the global economy as well as an unprecedented oil demand shock, leading to large oversupply in the oil market.
In response to this sudden and huge market imbalance, OPEC and the 10 non-OPEC participants in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), decided to adjust down their combined current production by 9.7 mb/d in May and June 2020, to be followed by a combined reduction of 7.7 mb/d in 2H20 and by 5.8 mb/d for a period of 16 months, from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022. Furthermore, on 12 May 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait announced that they would voluntarily deepen oil output adjustments from June, by 1 mb/d, 100 tb/d and 80 tb/d, respectively, in an effort to expedite draining a global supply glut and rebalancing the oil market. Outside of the DoC, other non-OPEC producers, particularly US producers, reduced their production by shutting-in producing wells or adjusting down the rate of production. According to different sources and company announcements, US producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of “putting on production” wells.
Additionally, 2020 oil production in Canada, particularly Alberta’s bitumen and synthetic crude, is forecast to decline by 0.4 mb/d on an annual basis, on reduced upstream capex of the main operators and shut-ins/curtailment announcements of around 1.0 mb/d.
Globally, outside of the DoC, as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have so far been announced in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. With this, non-OPEC supply in 2020 is expected to see a deep contraction of 3.5 mb/d mainly in the US, Russia and Canada, as only few countries will to show some supply growth in 2020 such as Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia.
The speedy supply adjustments in addressing the current acute imbalance in the global oil market has already started showing positive response, with rebalancing expected to pick up faster in the coming quarters.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
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