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Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
 Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non-OPEC supply growth. This growth came despite pipeline constraints in the Permian basin in 1H19, and as independent oil companies began to reduce spending in response to investor demands to raise free cash flow. With regard to infrastructure, Canada also suffered from limited pipeline and storage capacity, which led to a mandate to curtail oil sands production by the Alberta provincial government. Liquids production in Brazil, Australia, Russia and China also contributed to the gains, while part of this growth was offset by heavy declines in Mexico and Norway.
Capital expenditure, including exploration capex in non-OPEC countries, reached a record high of US$741 bn in 2014 when oil price levels were also high. However, in the years that followed and with lower average oil prices, investment dropped to considerably lower levels in 2016. Moreover, since the beginning of the renewed decline in oil prices in 4Q18, the amount of capex has also decreased to US$459 bn in 2019. Capex in 2020 is forecast to show a y-o-y decline of 23%, according to preliminary estimations, which is only approximately half of level of capex in 2014. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 1Q20 has spread globally in a matter of a couple of months, has caused a recession in the global economy as well as an unprecedented oil demand shock, leading to large oversupply in the oil market.
In response to this sudden and huge market imbalance, OPEC and the 10 non-OPEC participants in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), decided to adjust down their combined current production by 9.7 mb/d in May and June 2020, to be followed by a combined reduction of 7.7 mb/d in 2H20 and by 5.8 mb/d for a period of 16 months, from 1 January 2021 to 30 April 2022. Furthermore, on 12 May 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait announced that they would voluntarily deepen oil output adjustments from June, by 1 mb/d, 100 tb/d and 80 tb/d, respectively, in an effort to expedite draining a global supply glut and rebalancing the oil market. Outside of the DoC, other non-OPEC producers, particularly US producers, reduced their production by shutting-in producing wells or adjusting down the rate of production. According to different sources and company announcements, US producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of “putting on production” wells.
Additionally, 2020 oil production in Canada, particularly Alberta’s bitumen and synthetic crude, is forecast to decline by 0.4 mb/d on an annual basis, on reduced upstream capex of the main operators and shut-ins/curtailment announcements of around 1.0 mb/d.
Globally, outside of the DoC, as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have so far been announced in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. With this, non-OPEC supply in 2020 is expected to see a deep contraction of 3.5 mb/d mainly in the US, Russia and Canada, as only few countries will to show some supply growth in 2020 such as Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia.
The speedy supply adjustments in addressing the current acute imbalance in the global oil market has already started showing positive response, with rebalancing expected to pick up faster in the coming quarters.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
CRUDE OIL TANKER EARNINGS DROP 68% IN NINE DAYS - BIMCO
Crude oil tanker earnings have come down sharply in recent weeks with Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings from the Middle East Gulf to China d ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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