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Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
Banchero CostaSouth Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of the virus are down to almost zero, and the country is restarting, with life getting back to “almost” normal. Nevertheless, the effects on the Korean economy have been significant, and this is reflected in the raw material imports this year.
 
In the first 4 months of 2020, South Korea imported 46.6 mln tonnes of crude oil by sea, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv.
 
This represents a  net decline of -14.1% y-o-y, compared to the 54.3 mln tonnes imported in the same four-month period of 2019, although only down -5.3% from the 49.2 mln tonnes  imported in the same period of 2018 says Banchero Costa Research in its latest report.
 
The research report further noted that, on a single-month basis, January 2020 was down -17.0%  year-on-year to 11.1 mln  tonnes, whilst February 2020 showed a -9.7% y-o-y decline to 12.6 mln tonnes. In  March 2020 arrivals decreased again to 11.5 mln tonnes, down -8.5% m-o-m from February, and down -6.7% year-on-year. April 2020 recorded again 11.5 mln tonnes, a modest  -0.4%  decrease m-o-m from March, but a significant -21.9% y-o-y drop from 14.7 mln tonnes last year.
 
However, this comparison is quite misleading, as April 2019 was an exceptional month and an all-time record. South Korea is one of the largest consumers of oil in the world, relying almost exclusively on imports as a result of its minimal production.
 
South  Korean crude oil imports rose by +10.6% in 2015 to 137.8 mln tonnes, then +4.4% in 2016 to 143.9 mln t in 2016,  before peaking at 151.5 mln t in 2017. Imports in 2018 declined slightly by -0.3%  to 151.0  mln  t,  and  then increased anaemically by +0.7% y-o-y to 152.1 mln t in 2019, says the latest report.
 
Banchero Costa Research report further said, South Korea has always depended heavily on imports from the Middle East, to such an extent that starting from 2014 the government, in order to promote diversification, granted freight incentives to South Korean oil refiners buying crude oil from other regions. Still, in the first 4 months of 2020, as much as 63% of South Korea’s crude imports were shipped from the Arabian Gulf.
 
Shipments from Saudi Arabia to South Korea decreased by -11.2% y-o-y in Jan-Apr 2020, to 12.1 mln tonnes,  from  13.6  mln  tonnes  in the same period last year. Saudi Arabia accounts now for 26% of South Korea’s total crude imports.
 
Arrivals from Kuwait also declined by -15.6% y-o-y in Jan-Apr 2020, to 6.1 mln tonnes, from 7.2   mln tonnes  in  the same  period  last year. Kuwait accounts for 13% of South Korea’s total crude imports.
 
Shipments  from Iraq to South Korea crashed by  -37.6% y-o-y  in Jan-Apr 2020,  to  4.1 mln  t,  from 6.5 mln t in the same period last year. Iraq now has a share of 9% of South Korea’s total crude imports.
 
Washington’s  decision  to  re-impose sanctions against Iran from November 2018 had a huge impact on South Korean crude oil supply patterns. As a result, imports from Iran, at 4.4 mln tonnes in Jan-Apr 2018 and 3.8 mln tonnes in Jan-Apr 2019, came down to zero this year.
 
Imports from the United States, on the other hand, have surged. They were  up  +15%  y-o-y  in  Jan-Apr 2020 to 7.0 mln tonnes, from 5.9 mln tonnes in the same period last year, and from just 1.0 mln tonnes in Jan-Apr 2018.


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