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Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
 The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with seaborne thermal and metallurgical prices in near-freefall. So, what does this mean for global seaborne supply? And how will different regions be affected?
This article is an excerpt from our insight ‘Spot prices put 36% of seaborne production at risk’. Fill in the form for a complimentary copy of the 20-page insight or read on for some of the highlights.
Quantifying the impact on seaborne supply
Our research analysed the relative risk of production curtailment, identifying three risk categories:
High risk – operations with a negative spot margin and either a positive or negative valuation.
Medium risk – operations with a positive margin but a negative valuation.
Low risk – operations with a positive margin and a positive valuation.
The results are stark. More than a third of the seaborne coal market is currently at high risk of production curtailment.
Thermal coal: collapsing prices take margins with them
It may come as no surprise that the hard-hit thermal coal market accounts for 93%, or more than 440 million tonnes, of high-risk production. As it stands, nearly 45% of production would have a negative cash margin if sold at spot prices.
All producing countries have some thermal coal at risk. Indonesia has the most high-risk tonnage, though the entire Atlantic basin is struggling.
In Indonesia, weak demand from China and domestic oversupply are creating significant pressure, and a high likelihood of production cuts. The low oil price, and resultant fall in diesel, is in its favour – but exchange rate movements offer little help as the majority of costs are in US dollars.
Australia is best positioned to weather the storm. Costs versus quality of coal were already amongst the best in the world and exchange rate movements have only strengthened that position. As a result, we expect Australia to remain a core global supplier of coal regardless of weakening demand. Some curtailments may happen but will be limited due to high fixed costs around take-or-pay contracts.
What’s the situation in Russia, Colombia – and the rest of the world? Fill in the form at the top of this page to read this insight in full.
Seaborne metallurgical coal spared the collapse – for now
The metallurgical sector – with prices falling but not yet at record lows – represents just 7% of high-risk production, or around 33 million tonnes. Around 10% of metallurgical production has a negative cash margin.
The US is struggling at current spot prices, and the high costs of its producers mean that production cuts are coming. Small producers are likely to fall quickly and quietly, with larger operations announcing cuts.
In Canada, on the other hand, production is at low risk of curtailment. Canadian producers are positioned nearly as well as high-quality Australian operations. Lower quality and smaller operations are more at risk than large, flagship operations – however, while there is potential for some production curtailment if prices continue to fall, the tonnage is likely to be smaller than other countries.
For our full country-by-country analysis, fill in the form at the top of this page for a complimentary copy of the insight ‘Spot prices put 36% of seaborne production at risk’.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
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