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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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