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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
IEAWe expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sector, where two-thirds of coal is consumed: coal power generation fell by around 10%. Industrial use of coal also declined during the period, although reported increases in coal use for steel production in China mitigated the decline - IEA
 
According to IEA, in China, where more than half of the world’s coal is consumed, the Covid‑19 outbreak triggered a marked decline in coal demand because coal supplies 60% of primary energy and an even higher share of electricity. Coal consumption fell by 8% in Q1 2020 compared with 2019 as the economy contracted by 6.8% and coal power generation fell by close to 9%. Industrial production fell sharply; in January and February, automobile production declined by almost 50% and cement production by 30%, with a slight recovery afterwards.
 
In India, IEA said, the economy had not yet fully recovered from last year’s slowdown when the government mandated the lockdown of the whole country on March 24. Electricity demand and industrial production declined significantly in late March, likely leading to a new decline in India’s coal use in Q1 2020, after the drop in 2019.
 
In the United States, IEA said, a mild winter and the abundance of natural gas pushed gas prices down. Along with expanding renewables, this further squeezed coal out of the market. The decline in electricity use after the first states started lockdowns pushed coal use down even further, by around 30% in Q1 2020, with coal’s share in the power mix falling below 20% for the first time since the widespread development of coal-fired electricity generation in the 21st century.
 
IEA also said, in the European Union, coal demand fell by more than 20% in Q1 2020. The Covid‑19 outbreak and shrinking electricity demand during lockdowns added pressure on coal use, which was already falling because of low gas prices, a mild winter and increasing renewable output, which was also supported by favourable weather conditions. The, fall in CO2 allowances did not improve coal’s competitiveness with gas in the power sector and therefore was not much relief for coal, which declined 20% in Q1.


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