We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub-zero, albeit briefly and in somewhat freakish circumstances. Where are the signs of stress across the oil value chain? And what are the prospects of finding an exit route to recovery? I talked it through with Ann-Louise Hittle of our Macro Oils team.
First, oil demand, which we think may be close to bottoming out. Decline has been sharp and deep as Covid-19 takes its toll on global economic activity. Much of the world is currently in lockdown, with more than 65% of the world’s population under travel restrictions. Global air travel and car use have nosedived in many countries. The big hit has been on jet fuel demand (down 50% year-on-year) and gasoline (down 25%). Diesel and fuel oil – used to transport goods by truck, ship and rail – have held relatively steady.
The net effect will be April’s demand falling by an average of 15 million to 18 million b/d year on year, based on the early April forecast from our Macro Oils Service. It’s a big number but may be bigger still on certain days or weeks in April and May. Some estimates have suggested declines of 20 million b/d or more.
A key question is when the global economic recovery that’s needed to kick start oil demand growth again will begin. Right now, we appear to be in limbo. India, France and the UK, among other big economies, have extended lockdowns into May. Italy, Spain, Austria and others have started to ease restrictions while several US states are considering re-opening in May. There are early signs of US gasoline demand stabilising.
China though is the model to watch as it emerges from lockdown. It has already started ratcheting up crude purchases in April to supply a reviving economy.
Second, inventory is building at superfast rates globally. Cushing, Oklahoma, is a microcosm of the wider picture. Oil prices in Texas have incentivised producers to send crude to the Cushing hub; weak demand from refineries in the Mid-West and Gulf Coast have kept it there. Storage tanks are filling up rapidly – the three largest weekly builds on record were in consecutive weeks from late March, based on Genscape’s proprietary twice-weekly tank monitoring.
Cushing’s tightening storage capacity played a central role in WTI’s ignominious dive into negative prices on 20 April, ahead of the May contract expiry. Traders and financial players were effectively ambushed – having to pay counterparties up to US$37/bbl to roll out of their expiring May contracts and into June.
Storage globally will stay tight so long as oversupply persists. Genscape estimates Cushing‘s spare capacity of up to 15 million b/d will be full within weeks, and other landlocked hubs – the Caspian for one – are in a similar position. But in reality, producers everywhere are worried their crude won’t be able to find a home.
Third, the world is still awash with supply, which unlike demand is still close to pre-crisis levels. Low prices have killed off new investment but have not yet had much impact on production. So far, we estimate barely one million b/d of onstream non-OPEC production has been shut in.
These are sizeable volumes but, given the scale of the market oversupply, insignificant. We estimate over 15 million b/d of production generates negative operating cash flow, now that prices have lurched lower. As storage fills up, more wells and fields will be shut-in during the coming weeks. Curtailed volumes will quickly mount up.
What must happen for the oil market to start rebalancing and prices to recover? May is important for supply, with OPEC+ cuts taking effect and removing up to 7 million b/d from the market by the end of the month. We expect a slow return to “normal” life in H2 2020 to help demand recover, though most likely staying below pre-crisis levels.
A strong bounce in demand as the world emerges from recession will be needed to soak up the overhang of inventory, which threatens to reach record levels by summer. Nothing, however, can be taken for granted while coronavirus still poses a threat to economic – and social – activity.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
|
|
|
Showing 1311 to 1315 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
|
| |
| |
|
