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Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub-zero, albeit briefly and in somewhat freakish circumstances. Where are the signs of stress across the oil value chain? And what are the prospects of finding an exit route to recovery? I talked it through with Ann-Louise Hittle of our Macro Oils team.
First, oil demand, which we think may be close to bottoming out. Decline has been sharp and deep as Covid-19 takes its toll on global economic activity. Much of the world is currently in lockdown, with more than 65% of the world’s population under travel restrictions. Global air travel and car use have nosedived in many countries. The big hit has been on jet fuel demand (down 50% year-on-year) and gasoline (down 25%). Diesel and fuel oil – used to transport goods by truck, ship and rail – have held relatively steady.
The net effect will be April’s demand falling by an average of 15 million to 18 million b/d year on year, based on the early April forecast from our Macro Oils Service. It’s a big number but may be bigger still on certain days or weeks in April and May. Some estimates have suggested declines of 20 million b/d or more.
A key question is when the global economic recovery that’s needed to kick start oil demand growth again will begin. Right now, we appear to be in limbo. India, France and the UK, among other big economies, have extended lockdowns into May. Italy, Spain, Austria and others have started to ease restrictions while several US states are considering re-opening in May. There are early signs of US gasoline demand stabilising.
China though is the model to watch as it emerges from lockdown. It has already started ratcheting up crude purchases in April to supply a reviving economy.
Second, inventory is building at superfast rates globally. Cushing, Oklahoma, is a microcosm of the wider picture. Oil prices in Texas have incentivised producers to send crude to the Cushing hub; weak demand from refineries in the Mid-West and Gulf Coast have kept it there. Storage tanks are filling up rapidly – the three largest weekly builds on record were in consecutive weeks from late March, based on Genscape’s proprietary twice-weekly tank monitoring.
Cushing’s tightening storage capacity played a central role in WTI’s ignominious dive into negative prices on 20 April, ahead of the May contract expiry. Traders and financial players were effectively ambushed – having to pay counterparties up to US$37/bbl to roll out of their expiring May contracts and into June.
Storage globally will stay tight so long as oversupply persists. Genscape estimates Cushing‘s spare capacity of up to 15 million b/d will be full within weeks, and other landlocked hubs – the Caspian for one – are in a similar position. But in reality, producers everywhere are worried their crude won’t be able to find a home.
Third, the world is still awash with supply, which unlike demand is still close to pre-crisis levels. Low prices have killed off new investment but have not yet had much impact on production. So far, we estimate barely one million b/d of onstream non-OPEC production has been shut in.
These are sizeable volumes but, given the scale of the market oversupply, insignificant. We estimate over 15 million b/d of production generates negative operating cash flow, now that prices have lurched lower. As storage fills up, more wells and fields will be shut-in during the coming weeks. Curtailed volumes will quickly mount up.
What must happen for the oil market to start rebalancing and prices to recover? May is important for supply, with OPEC+ cuts taking effect and removing up to 7 million b/d from the market by the end of the month. We expect a slow return to “normal” life in H2 2020 to help demand recover, though most likely staying below pre-crisis levels.
A strong bounce in demand as the world emerges from recession will be needed to soak up the overhang of inventory, which threatens to reach record levels by summer. Nothing, however, can be taken for granted while coronavirus still poses a threat to economic – and social – activity.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 30 December 19
AUSTRALIAN MINERS HIT BY LOWEST THERMAL COAL PRICE IN MORE THAN A DECADE - THE GUARDIAN
Australian coal exporters have experienced the biggest annual drop in thermal coal prices in more than a decade during 2019, raising doubts about i ...
Monday, 30 December 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS RISE 4% TO 161.43 MT IN APRIL-NOVEMBER 2019 - PTI
The country’s coal imports registered an increase of 4.4 per cent to 161.43 million tonnes (MT) in the April-November period of the ongoing f ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
IMO 2020 COMPLIANCE: IT'S UP TO US TO BE GOOD CITIZENS - IBIA
One of the concerns around implementation of the 0.50% sulphur limit has been, and continues to be, the need for effective enforcement to ensure a ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
AUSTRALIA SUFFERS WORST OF CHINA'S COAL CURBS AFTER EARLIER BOOM - BLOOMBERG
Australia is bearing the brunt of China’s year-end coal import restrictions, ceding market share to other exporters including Russia and Mong ...
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Showing 1216 to 1220 news of total 6871 |
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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