We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub-zero, albeit briefly and in somewhat freakish circumstances. Where are the signs of stress across the oil value chain? And what are the prospects of finding an exit route to recovery? I talked it through with Ann-Louise Hittle of our Macro Oils team.
First, oil demand, which we think may be close to bottoming out. Decline has been sharp and deep as Covid-19 takes its toll on global economic activity. Much of the world is currently in lockdown, with more than 65% of the world’s population under travel restrictions. Global air travel and car use have nosedived in many countries. The big hit has been on jet fuel demand (down 50% year-on-year) and gasoline (down 25%). Diesel and fuel oil – used to transport goods by truck, ship and rail – have held relatively steady.
The net effect will be April’s demand falling by an average of 15 million to 18 million b/d year on year, based on the early April forecast from our Macro Oils Service. It’s a big number but may be bigger still on certain days or weeks in April and May. Some estimates have suggested declines of 20 million b/d or more.
A key question is when the global economic recovery that’s needed to kick start oil demand growth again will begin. Right now, we appear to be in limbo. India, France and the UK, among other big economies, have extended lockdowns into May. Italy, Spain, Austria and others have started to ease restrictions while several US states are considering re-opening in May. There are early signs of US gasoline demand stabilising.
China though is the model to watch as it emerges from lockdown. It has already started ratcheting up crude purchases in April to supply a reviving economy.
Second, inventory is building at superfast rates globally. Cushing, Oklahoma, is a microcosm of the wider picture. Oil prices in Texas have incentivised producers to send crude to the Cushing hub; weak demand from refineries in the Mid-West and Gulf Coast have kept it there. Storage tanks are filling up rapidly – the three largest weekly builds on record were in consecutive weeks from late March, based on Genscape’s proprietary twice-weekly tank monitoring.
Cushing’s tightening storage capacity played a central role in WTI’s ignominious dive into negative prices on 20 April, ahead of the May contract expiry. Traders and financial players were effectively ambushed – having to pay counterparties up to US$37/bbl to roll out of their expiring May contracts and into June.
Storage globally will stay tight so long as oversupply persists. Genscape estimates Cushing‘s spare capacity of up to 15 million b/d will be full within weeks, and other landlocked hubs – the Caspian for one – are in a similar position. But in reality, producers everywhere are worried their crude won’t be able to find a home.
Third, the world is still awash with supply, which unlike demand is still close to pre-crisis levels. Low prices have killed off new investment but have not yet had much impact on production. So far, we estimate barely one million b/d of onstream non-OPEC production has been shut in.
These are sizeable volumes but, given the scale of the market oversupply, insignificant. We estimate over 15 million b/d of production generates negative operating cash flow, now that prices have lurched lower. As storage fills up, more wells and fields will be shut-in during the coming weeks. Curtailed volumes will quickly mount up.
What must happen for the oil market to start rebalancing and prices to recover? May is important for supply, with OPEC+ cuts taking effect and removing up to 7 million b/d from the market by the end of the month. We expect a slow return to “normal” life in H2 2020 to help demand recover, though most likely staying below pre-crisis levels.
A strong bounce in demand as the world emerges from recession will be needed to soak up the overhang of inventory, which threatens to reach record levels by summer. Nothing, however, can be taken for granted while coronavirus still poses a threat to economic – and social – activity.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
|
|
|
Showing 1026 to 1030 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
