We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub-zero, albeit briefly and in somewhat freakish circumstances. Where are the signs of stress across the oil value chain? And what are the prospects of finding an exit route to recovery? I talked it through with Ann-Louise Hittle of our Macro Oils team.
First, oil demand, which we think may be close to bottoming out. Decline has been sharp and deep as Covid-19 takes its toll on global economic activity. Much of the world is currently in lockdown, with more than 65% of the world’s population under travel restrictions. Global air travel and car use have nosedived in many countries. The big hit has been on jet fuel demand (down 50% year-on-year) and gasoline (down 25%). Diesel and fuel oil – used to transport goods by truck, ship and rail – have held relatively steady.
The net effect will be April’s demand falling by an average of 15 million to 18 million b/d year on year, based on the early April forecast from our Macro Oils Service. It’s a big number but may be bigger still on certain days or weeks in April and May. Some estimates have suggested declines of 20 million b/d or more.
A key question is when the global economic recovery that’s needed to kick start oil demand growth again will begin. Right now, we appear to be in limbo. India, France and the UK, among other big economies, have extended lockdowns into May. Italy, Spain, Austria and others have started to ease restrictions while several US states are considering re-opening in May. There are early signs of US gasoline demand stabilising.
China though is the model to watch as it emerges from lockdown. It has already started ratcheting up crude purchases in April to supply a reviving economy.
Second, inventory is building at superfast rates globally. Cushing, Oklahoma, is a microcosm of the wider picture. Oil prices in Texas have incentivised producers to send crude to the Cushing hub; weak demand from refineries in the Mid-West and Gulf Coast have kept it there. Storage tanks are filling up rapidly – the three largest weekly builds on record were in consecutive weeks from late March, based on Genscape’s proprietary twice-weekly tank monitoring.
Cushing’s tightening storage capacity played a central role in WTI’s ignominious dive into negative prices on 20 April, ahead of the May contract expiry. Traders and financial players were effectively ambushed – having to pay counterparties up to US$37/bbl to roll out of their expiring May contracts and into June.
Storage globally will stay tight so long as oversupply persists. Genscape estimates Cushing‘s spare capacity of up to 15 million b/d will be full within weeks, and other landlocked hubs – the Caspian for one – are in a similar position. But in reality, producers everywhere are worried their crude won’t be able to find a home.
Third, the world is still awash with supply, which unlike demand is still close to pre-crisis levels. Low prices have killed off new investment but have not yet had much impact on production. So far, we estimate barely one million b/d of onstream non-OPEC production has been shut in.
These are sizeable volumes but, given the scale of the market oversupply, insignificant. We estimate over 15 million b/d of production generates negative operating cash flow, now that prices have lurched lower. As storage fills up, more wells and fields will be shut-in during the coming weeks. Curtailed volumes will quickly mount up.
What must happen for the oil market to start rebalancing and prices to recover? May is important for supply, with OPEC+ cuts taking effect and removing up to 7 million b/d from the market by the end of the month. We expect a slow return to “normal” life in H2 2020 to help demand recover, though most likely staying below pre-crisis levels.
A strong bounce in demand as the world emerges from recession will be needed to soak up the overhang of inventory, which threatens to reach record levels by summer. Nothing, however, can be taken for granted while coronavirus still poses a threat to economic – and social – activity.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
|
|
|
Showing 991 to 995 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
