We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
|
|
|
Showing 971 to 975 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
