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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 27 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.94 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.03 points Monday, up 0.94 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Monday, 25 May 20
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
Non-OPEC oil supply continued to increase by 2.0 mb/d in 2019, driven by US shale production, which rose by 1.7 mb/d, amounting to 84% of total non ...
Sunday, 24 May 20
A 63,000 FIXED DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY KOSICHANG AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of bounce momentum the market appears to have stalled out once again. The Capesize 5TC has more than doubled since last F ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN 7.2% IN Q1 ON LOW PRICES, CORONAVIRUS LOCKDOWN - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest coal exporter, fell 7.2% in the first quarter because of low prices and coronavirus qu ...
Saturday, 23 May 20
EWP INVITES BIDS FOR 840,000 METRIC TONS OF MIN 5700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) has Issued an International Tender for total Max 840,000 Metric Tons of min 5 ...
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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