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Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
 OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, recording their deepest monthly drop since the global financial crisis in 2008. The ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic were the main driving force, resulting in unprecedented worldwide oil demand shock and massive sell-offs in the global oil markets, amid a significant crude surplus. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value was down by $21.61, or 38.9%, m-o-m, to stand at $33.92/b, the lowest monthly value since September 2003. ICE Brent declined by $21.75, or 39.2%, m-o-m, to average $33.73/b, while NYMEX WTI fell $20.09, or 39.8%, to average $30.45/b. The term structure of all three crude benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman – moved to a super contango in March, and money managers cut speculative net long positions.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a severe recession in 2020, declining by 1.5%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Following tender signs of improvement at the beginning of the year, expectations for global economic growth were quickly burdened by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 4.1% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 6.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 3.9% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.5%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20 and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to grow by only 2.0%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 2.4% in 2020, following growth of 1.0% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 0.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.4% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices. As risk remains to be skewed to the downside, further revisions may be warranted going forward.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth forecast for 2019 is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d, compared with the previous month’s assessment. For 2020, the world oil demand growth forecast is revised lower by 6.9 mb/d, to a historical drop of around 6.8 mb/d. The contraction in the 2Q of this year is expected to be around 12 mb/d, with April witnessing the worst contraction at about 20 mb/d. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in China in 1Q20, and its negative impact on transportation and industrial fuels in the country, has since spread globally and is now affecting oil demand growth in most other countries and regions, with an unprecedented impact on global oil demand, transportation fuels in particular. As a result, OECD oil demand is revised lower by 3.7 mb/d to decline by 4.0 mb/d, while non-OECD oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 3.2 mb/d to contract by 2.9 mb/d for the year. Considering latest developments, and the large uncertainties going forward, downward risks remain significant, suggesting possibility of further adjustments, especially in the 2Q, should new data and further developments warrant revisions.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2019 is revised down by 0.01 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now estimated at 1.98 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to decline by 1.50 mb/d, a downward revision of 3.26 mb/d from the previous projection. The impact of COVID-19, ensuing global economic recession and oil demand shock, will also lead to supply disruptions. Benchmark oil prices plunge prompted companies to respond by cutting capital expenditure to the lowest in 13 years. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US was revised down by 1.05 mb/d to show a decline of 0.15 mb/d y-o-y. The supply growth for the 10 non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation has also been adjusted lower. Oil supply in 2020 is now forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 will grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In March, OPEC crude oil production increased by 821 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.61 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Global refinery margins globally showed mixed performance during March. In the US, margins weakened as strength in gasoil/diesel was offset by losses in gasoline cracks, as complex margins came close to negative territory. In Europe, product markets strengthened slightly at the middle of the barrel, supported by a fall in feedstock prices. An already relatively tight global gasoil market saw support from output cuts and continued critical industrial activities for essential services and goods amid COVID-19. However, in Asia, margins eased towards the end of the month, pressured by a weaker top of the barrel, despite healthy gasoil and fuel oil crack spreads.
Tanker Market
The tanker market has been one of few segments of the oil industry that enjoyed positive momentum in March. A sudden surge in crude exports boosted demand for VLCCs, which pulled up Suezmax rates as well. Dirty spot freight rates declined mid-month before climbing again as the market was supported by high demand for tankers as charterers rushed to place cargoes amid a collapse in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased options for time-chartering, including for floating storage, underscored the build-up of excess supply of crude and products in the market. For the month, dirty spot rates averaged 69% higher m-o-m in March. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose 12% m-o-m, as the need to find homes for excess product supplies supported the market.
Trade
Crude and product trade flows have been notably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain outlook going forward, although there has been some lag in how the various regions have been affected. US crude exports had a strong start to the year, averaging 3.5 mb/d in 1Q20, a gain of 0.8 mb/d over the same quarter last year, as the US remained a net liquids exporter for the seventh-consecutive month. Meanwhile, China’s crude imports averaged 10.5 mb/d over the first two months of 2020, declining from December as disruptions caused by COVID-19 led to some imports being diverted or delayed. Product trade was also affected, with imports and exports averaging 0.3 mb/d lower in the first two months of the year compared to December. Official data showed India’s crude imports increasing slightly in February, although some estimates show a higher jump as the country took in some discounted cargoes diverted from China. India’s crude and product trade is likely to be broadly impacted in March by a government-ordered lockdown.
Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.6 mb, m-o-m, in February to stand at 2,945 mb. This was 64.3 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 24.7 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 6.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 11.7 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 5.0 days, m-o-m, in February to stand at 72.7 days. This was 11.5 days above the same period in 2019, and 10.3 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for March showed that US total commercial oil stocks increased by 8.2 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 1,922 mb. This was 31.8 mb, or 1.7%, above the same period a year ago, and 16.2 mb, or 0.8%, lower than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks rose by 25.1 mb, while product stocks fell by 16.8 mb, m-o-m.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.9 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings, the demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is expected at 24.5 mb/d, around 5.4 mb/d lower than the 2019 level, though this remains heavily subject to uncertainty surrounding current market conditions.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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