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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in a bull run lately. Amidst an oversupplied oil market and expectations of production cuts and consequent oil price hikes, the large contango effect has made profitable several storage plays during the past couple of months, occupying a lot of ships as a result, while in addition to that, several countries decided (amid bottoming oil prices and the Coronavirus pandemic emergency) to increase to the maximum their strategic petroleum reserves (e.g. the US SPR already has 634 million barrels in storage vs. a total capacity of 713 million barrels).
Key stakeholders in the industry created an additional hype by characterizing this meeting as one of the most important and historic events in the last two decades, creating expectations that any deal would lead to a further spike in short-term activity. There were of course also some less optimistic voices in the industry insisting that deal or no-deal the tanker market remained fundamentally weak in the long term, with the pandemic restrictive measures around the world already leading to a 25-35 million b/d or 30% decrease in demand. Following the end of the meeting, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 9.7m b/d for May and June, 8m b/d for the remainder of 2020 and 6 million b/d for the period January 2021-April 2022. The record cuts we are about to witness in the next couple of months are almost equal to 10% of global supply, while together with non-OPEC+ member cuts the figure could even reach the equivalent of 1/5 of global supply.
This means that May onwards cargo loadings will definitely see significant declines and this will most likely have a negative impact on the tanker freight market. Because of this expectation, we could possibly see producing countries trying to pump out as much product as possible before the agreement enters into effect, which could offer some support to the tanker market before we reach May 1st.
Looking further ahead and as “expecting the unexpected” is something everyone must have gotten used to by now, I’d say that there are a few possible scenarios in which neither the oil market dries up, nor prices manage to stabilize at much higher levels and push freights down. We have seen many times during previous output cuts that there have been some non-compliant members and we won’t be surprised to see certain producing countries eventually ramping up production above what was agreed this time as well.
Not only would such a development restore part of the cargoes lost, but it would also cause great dissatisfaction to compliant members that would start losing market share due to non-compliance and this could eventually lead to a new price war as a result. In addition to that, global demand for oil will gradually begin to increase as countries around the world eventually start to exit the pandemic emergency state and return to normality, while let’s not forget the amount of tonnage that has been used for storage and will not be competing for business in the tanker market.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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