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Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubtedly it was a very interesting quarter with a significant freight boom taking place earlier in the year, tensions among oil producers creating volatile market conditions and the COVID-19 pandemic reshaping the global economic environment said Yiannis Vamvakas, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping in his latest weekly report.
Yiannis Vamvakas further noted that, the truth is that the recent developments as part of the pandemic have affected the whole global economy, diminishing demand for several oil products which in turn has started to show a slight trend in crude oil itself. Looking just at the BDTI index, we can see on absolute terms that the quarterly loss was 12.7%. This is a disappointing figure, Yiannis Vamvakas said, but not devastating especially when it is compared to the dry bulk market, proving that the oil market was able to resist the effects of the global economic downhill that is being witnessed. Adding to this, we noted that both the VLCC and Suezmax TCA have gained 164.4% and 37.7% respectively on a quarterly basis. It seems as though that had it not been for the catastrophic February, things may have been even better for the crude oil tanker segments.
The price war between oil producers has pushed Brent and WTI to record lows, helping demand remain healthy even under the current circumstances, while several tankers have been “taken out” of the global fleet in order to be used as storage. In contrary to all of this, we should note that the Aframax TCA moved in the opposite direction this past quarter, losing about 30.8%. Given that oil price is not expected to move significantly upwards in the coming months (obviously not considering any major shift in production plans of the main oil producers), we are anticipating interest from the charterers’ side to remain intense during the start of the 2nd quarter. Adding to this the glimpse of optimism reflected in the rebound noted in European stock markets on the back of the stabilization seen in the COVID-19 spread, and you could have the basis for a gradual improvement to take place.
Research Analyst of Allied Shipping further noted that, on the supply side, we have seen the global tanker fleet increase by 53 units during 1Q20, with 23 of them being crude oil carriers. This quarterly rise is around 1%, an encouraging figure when compared to the respective fleet expansion of 2.63% noted in 1Q19. On the supply side things remain positive for now, with interest for new-building orders having eased back as of late. However, it is likely that this trend will shift in the near future, as ship recycling activity will now be minimal due to the COVID-19 lockdown measures taken in the Indian Sub-Continent, while at the same time this pause noted in newbuilding activity is expected to be temporary. On the positive side though the orderbook to vintage fleet ratio (a figure that depicts the potential additions compared to potential demolition candidates) holds at fairly good levels. The ratio now holds for the VLCC segment at a mere 13.33%, for the Suezmax 24.00% and for the Aframax 7.89%, the lowest points noted the last 5 years.
Taking into consideration the resilience that crude oil tanker market has shown so far, we anticipate the market to remain on a positive track in the coming quarter, even if there are some signs of volatility emerging. The low-price of oil, the potential that the worst is now behind us and the healthy status of the supply side, all leave space for optimism. However, as we are deliberating on a market that is largely exposed to geo-political events and highly linked to the global economy, it is essential to remember that there could always be another “blank swan” hiding around next turn.
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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