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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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