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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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