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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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