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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
Friday, 23 September 22
EUROPEAN STEEL BUYERS SEEK DIRECTION IN VOLATILE MARKET - MEPS INTERNATIONAL
Demand for steel is slow to recover, after the summer break. Mill production costs continue to increase. Steel purchasers are uncertain about the f ...
Friday, 23 September 22
BUOYANT COAL INDUSTRY SEEKS WAYS TO STAY IN THE LONG-TERM ENERGY MIX - REUTERS
There’s no doubt that the global coal industry has been a major beneficiary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy c ...
Friday, 23 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In view of the forthcoming winter, Europe is trying to escape from its energy (oil & gas) dependency from Russia to ensure energy abundance eve ...
Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA'S DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS 3-MONTH LOW IN AUGUST ON RAINS, COVID CURBS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in August slipped to a three-month low as some mines in its biggest coal mining regions reduced operations or even ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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