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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equ ...
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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