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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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