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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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