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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 18 November 22
REALITIES OF LOI LIABILITIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The cargo misdelivery claim in Trafigura Maritime Logistics Pte Ltd v. Clearlake Shipping Pte Ltd (Miracle Hope) [2022] E ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
CHINA SEES RISING COAL STORAGE AMID SUPPLY PUSH - XINHUA
Coal stockpiles at China’s power plants have seen considerable increases, ensuring energy supply for the winter, the country’s energy r ...
Tuesday, 15 November 22
SEABORNE THERMAL COAL PRICES START TO EASE, BUT PROCESS IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Prices for seaborne thermal coal have started to drop as fears of a winter energy crunch ease, but the rate of decline has varied across the differ ...
Thursday, 10 November 22
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS HAVE ADEQUATE COAL STOCKS AT 25.6 MILLION TONNES, SAYS GOVT - IANS
The coal stock with domestic dry fuel-based power plants, as on October 31, was 25.6 million tonnes, the government said, adding that the availabil ...
Tuesday, 08 November 22
OUTLOOK ON CHINA’S WEAKENED BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR CLOUDED BY POLICY SWINGS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects basic materials demand in China to improve qoq in 4Q22, driven by seasonally higher construction activity, solid infrastructu ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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