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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
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Thursday, 24 November 22
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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