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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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