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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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