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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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