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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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