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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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